ORCL · Software
Oracle Corporation
Enterprise database, applications and cloud infrastructure company with $664bn of remaining performance obligations.
- Rating
- Price
- $137.10
- Price target
- $130.00
- Implied return
- -5%
- Market value
- $414.6bn
- Next results
- December 2026
ORCL$130.00-5%
Our view
Vishal Bhargava, CFA · updated Sep 28, 2026Target $130.00Implied return -5%
The backlog is real but long-dated, so conversion rather than demand sets value: only 13% of the $664bn RPO is expected to be recognised in the next 12 months. Infrastructure returns are unproven after capex, leases and customer financing, and the price already discounts better terminal economics than our base case.
What could prove us wrong
- Counterparty (OpenAI) renegotiation of contracted capacity
- Delays in energising data-centre capacity
- A credit downgrade to high yield, worth about $16 a share
Ask the analyst about ORCL
Answers come from Penmark’s ORCL research and the company’s filings, with a source for each claim. Change an assumption and the assistant reruns the report’s valuation.