Tesla, Inc.
Electric vehicle maker that also sells battery energy storage, charging, services and supervised self-driving software.
- Rating
- Price
- $373.71
- Price target
- $260.00
- Implied return
- -30%
- Market value
- $1,476bn
- Next results
- Not on the calendar
Our view
Penmark Research · updated Oct 21, 2026Tesla's value sits in businesses it has not built. The price pays $278 a share for robotaxi and Optimus; on 380,000 unsupervised miles and fleets of dozens of cars per city, we can support $139. The car business cannot fill the gap: deliveries fell 8.6% in FY254 (source: Tesla 8-K delivery and production reports, 1Q22–3Q26), and automotive gross margin ex-credits of 16.3% is structural, with cost of goods near $35,000 a vehicle for four years2 (source: Tesla earnings-call transcripts, 1Q24–2Q26, including the 2Q26 call of 22 July 2026). Energy is real and compounding, and the one place we are above consensus, but at $23 a share and 13% of revenue it cannot carry the group.
What could prove us wrong
- Chinese price war: a further 5pp of average selling price deflation would cut $35 a share.
- Upside risk: robotaxi scales faster than modelled; a national permit or a 10,000-car city would add about $170 a share.
- Upside risk: FSD at $1,500 a year and 65% attach would be worth $90 a share more.
Ask the analyst about TSLA
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