JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Largest US bank by assets, providing consumer and community banking, cards, investment banking, markets, and asset and wealth management.
- Rating
- Price
- $339.72
- Price target
- $311.00
- Implied return
- -8%
- Market value
- $902bn
- Next results
- Jan 14, 2027 (expected)
Our view
Vishal Bhargava, CFA · updated Oct 19, 2026JPMorgan is the largest US bank and ranks first in US deposits, cards and investment banking fees, but the price already pays for it. At $339.72 the shares need ROTCE to fade only to 19.5% over ten years, while management targets 17% through the cycle3 (source: JPMorgan Chase Investor Day 2025 outlook and 17% through-cycle ROTCE target, opens in a new tab). Costs are running ahead of revenue: 3Q26 expenses grew 12% against revenue up 8%1 (source: JPMorgan Chase 3Q26 earnings release, opens in a new tab). Provisions rise to $12.5bn in FY27E, and Basel III and G-SIB relief is not in our numbers because both are still proposals9 (source: Federal Reserve Basel III endgame capital proposal, March 2026, opens in a new tab)10 (source: Federal Reserve G-SIB surcharge proposal, 2026, opens in a new tab).
What could prove us wrong
- A credit cycle with card charge-offs above 4% and provisions of $16bn would take value to our $189 bear case, -$109 a share.
- Deposit migration that cuts the net yield by 10bp would take about $14 a share off our value.
- A 10% fall in markets and investment banking revenue would take about $12 a share off our value.
Ask the analyst about JPM
Answers come from Penmark’s JPM research and the company’s filings, with a source for each claim. Change an assumption and the assistant reruns the report’s valuation.