Oklo: the price already assumes near-certain fleet success
Oklo will build, own and operate 75 MWe Aurora fast-reactor powerhouses. At $32.21 and a 13% discount rate the shares need roughly a 100% chance of fleet success; we use 50% and set a $21 target.
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Key takeaways
- DOE approved the Aurora-INL preliminary safety analysis in June 2026, and the Groves test reactor reached criticality in August
- At $125/MWh a powerhouse earns 4% on $9,000/kW of capex and 14% on $3,600/kW, against a 13% hurdle
- HALEU fuel is conditional until 2029: Centrus produces 0.9 t a year against 50 t a year of US demand expected by 2035
- Our base case needs 161m new shares (86% more) and $10.6bn of equity by 2050E
- Initiate with a $21 target, 34% below the price
Investment thesis
Licensing is no longer the main risk: DOE approved the Aurora-INL preliminary safety analysis in June 2026. Unit economics are the real debate, because a powerhouse needs capex near $4,500/kW to clear a 13% hurdle against about $9,000/kW for first units. Fuel is conditional until 2029, and the base case needs 161m new shares (86% more) to fund the fleet.
Valuation
Our $21 target is a risk-adjusted NPV at a 13% discount rate, rolled forward 12 months, with a 50% probability of fleet success. At $32.21 the shares need roughly a 100% probability. Dilution removes about $18 a share from $34 of probability-weighted fleet value and cash.
Our estimates
| Line | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5m | $5m |
| EPS | −$1.10 | −$1.69 |
Risks to our view
- Capex stays near the ~$9,000/kW first-unit cost, worth about $5 a share
- Power prices below $125/MWh, worth about $6 a share for each $20/MWh
- HALEU fuel not delivered on time, with only a Centrus letter of intent in place
- Funding at a lower share price: the base case needs $10.6bn of equity by 2050E
- Upside risk: a binding hyperscaler PPA at or above $150/MWh with capex pass-through
- Upside risk: Aurora-INL reaching power before end-2028 at a disclosed cost below $6,000/kW