Deep dives · Initiation
Cypherpunk Technologies: a Zcash treasury with an oncology option
The shares price ZEC at a premium its treasury peers do not receive. Our sum of the parts gives $1.55 per fully diluted share, so we initiate at Sell.
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Key takeaways
- Cypherpunk holds 326,418 ZEC worth $402.6m, valued by the market at 1.76x
- ZEC per 1,000 shares fell from 1.72 to 1.41 after 43.3m warrant shares were issued for mining assets
- We value the sirexatamab programme at $42.5m, or $0.13 a share
- Initiate at Sell with a $1.55 target, 49% below the price
Investment thesis
At $3.05 the market values the company at 1.76x the ZEC it holds, while five listed treasury peers trade at 0.4x to 1.0x. Dilution has outrun accumulation, and the oncology option is small.
Valuation
Our sum of the parts gives $1.55 per fully diluted share, 49% below the price. ZEC would need to reach about $2,550, 2.1 times today’s price, to justify $3.05.
Risks to our view
- ZEC above $2,150 for 20 trading days would lift our target to $2.60 and move us to Hold
- A signed sirexatamab licence or sale that lifts our oncology value above $375m
- A share price at or below $1.80 with ZEC near $1,233 would move us to Hold